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The Outlook for Migration in Challenging Times



A new study from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has reported that international migration fell for the third consecutive year in 2010 but started picking up again in 2011.



The 2012 Edition of the International Migration Outlook, Outlook for Migration in Challenging Times, addresses some key challenges for migration policies in the context of low growth and high unemployment, ageing populations and workforces, and an unprecedented geo-economic shift from OECD countries to emerging economies.



One determinant factor for international migration flows is what is happening in Europe today. The European Union is one of the main catalysts for international economic exchanges, including migration. Its prospects of growth and employment have a direct impact on global migration flows.



So what is the impact of this apparently “endless” crisis on international migration? How are the current global transformations influencing migration dynamics? What are the new trends? Among the key findings of the OECD study are that migration flows into the OECD bottomed out in 2010.



Impact of financial crisis



The report says that the global financial and economic crisis and the subsequent recession had a tremendously negative impact on employment globally. Migrants, along with youth, were particularly affected by the global jobs contraction (and even more so young migrants). The impact was so strong that migration flows into OECD countries serious declines during 2008 and 2009. In 2010, the permanent migration into OECD countries fell again by 2.5 per cent from 2009 to 4.1 million people.



Migration to the US fell by 8 per cent in 2010. It dropped by 3 per cent to European OECD countries – excluding intra-EU movements – but rose by more than 10 per cent to Canada, Korea and Mexico. Recent national data suggests that migration picked up in 2011 in the US, Australia, New Zealand and European OECD countries, with the exception of Italy, Spain and Sweden.



The jobs crisis has also put more immigrants at risk of marginalisation. Between 2008 and 2011, the number of youth not in employment, education or training, rose sharply among migrants. Young immigrants have also ended up in part-time and temporary employment more often than native-born youth or adult immigrants in many OECD countries. Long-term unemployment has also increased significantly among immigrants, notably in Europe.



Equal treatment



OECD Secretary General, Angel Gurría, said: “Labour market developments and migration flows are closely linked. The decline in labour demand has been the driving force behind the fall in migration during the crisis, not restrictions imposed by migration policies, as the 2012 Migration Outlook report shows.



“Countries must pay attention to their long-term labour market needs, focus on skills and devise policies for the integration of migrants, particularly the young, whose competencies will be needed as the global economy recovers.”



UNI P&M Director, Pav Akhtar, added: “The global financial crisis has exposed how migrant workers are often frontline victims. The decline in intra-EU migration flows in the post-crisis period is driven by the decline in demand for labour not policy restrictions. This lesson is reflected in the experience of countries like Sweden, which fully opened up its labour market for migration in 2008 but did not experience a strong increase in labour immigration.



“As P&M workers we need to make the case to governments to think twice before they close the door to immigration as an adequate answer to unemployment. As trade unionists we should also press the fact that a worker is a worker and migrant workers deserve equal treatment.”



UNI World P&M President, Ulf Bengtsson, reflected: “In the last century the Nobel Prize for science was awarded to 100 researchers from the US. More than half of them were foreign-born or first-generation immigrants. These high-skilled immigrants are typical of a pool of talent, ambition and expertise that are sine qua non for maintaining a competitive advantage in the knowledge-based global economy.



“The issue of free mobility and its broader implications for the labour market is at the heart of recent experiences from OECD and EU countries which show how free mobility favours the labour markets adaptability to changing conditions or downturns, and as a great advantage.”



Changing demographics



Over the past decade, new immigrants accounted for 70 per cent of the increase in the labour force in Europe, and 47 per cent in the US. This positive role of migration in maintaining the size of the labour force in many countries is expected to become more important as more baby-boomers retire. By 2015, immigration – at the current level – will not be sufficient to maintain the working age population in many OECD countries, especially in the EU.



The share of migrants from Asia among immigrants to OECD countries rose from 27 per cent in 2000 to 31 per cent in 2010, with China alone accounting for about 10 per cent. China and India between them also account for 25 per cent of international students in OECD countries.



In the long-term, as Asia develops and offers more attractive and professional jobs locally and itself attracts more highly-skilled workers from abroad, OECD countries will be less able to rely on this steady stream of skilled workers.



Policy recommendations



The report highlights migration and integration policies that can help labour markets function better:

· Make better use of the skills of migrants already living in countries to meet rising demand for skilled workers.

· Strengthen integration efforts for certain groups at risk. Young low-skilled migrants accumulate disadvantages and are at higher risk of long-term unemployment.

· Exercise caution with regard to international recruitment into occupations where employment is strongly cyclical.

· Maintain channels of migration for occupations which continue to be in shortage, even in the current slack labour market.





Link

http://www.oecd.org/document/9/0,3746,en_2649_37415_50649481_1_1_1_37415,00.html